It’s common knowledge that Apple announces its refreshed iPhones every September. It’s an annual cycle that dates back to the dawn of time (or, uh, 2012) and we see no reason Apple would change things up this year.

The exact date of the launch event has yet to be officially announced, though, and we never find out exactly when the devices will hit stores until the event itself. That hasn’t stopped CNET analyzing the past six years of announcements in an attempt to deduce the answer, though – and if we had to bet, we’d say they’re pretty spot on with this final prediction:

“The new 2018 iPhones will be announced on Wednesday, Sept. 12 and released on Friday, Sept. 21.”

Those may sound like random dates plucked from thin air, but there’s a method to the madness here. In the last six years, Apple has always held its big iPhone presentation on either a Tuesday or Wednesday in the first two weeks of September. That leaves four possible dates for this year’s event.

The first two a little too close to Labor Day, which Apple has historically avoided clashing with, while the following Tuesday is September 11, which is a bad idea for obvious reasons. That leaves Wednesday 12 as the sensible choice.

If correct, the shipping date would then be Friday 21 – Apple almost always releases its new iPhones on the Friday of the following week.

That gives you just under six weeks to start saving for one of the three iPhone variations expected to be announced this year!

Related reading: dummy units of 2018 iPhones revealed